LendingOne analyzed monthly housing permit data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Building Permit Survey to see where single-family permit activity is ramping up, and where it is pulling back. These are our key findings:
- U.S. single-family housing permit activity remains resilient, with permits in April 2024 being above 23% April 2023 levels, and 22% above April 2019.
- Markets in the South saw the most single-family permits in April 2024.
- Wilmington, North Carolina saw a 226% year-over-year growth in single-family permit activity—the highest of any U.S. metro.
The chart above shows that in the face of strained housing affordability, new home construction has remained resilient.
But it does vary by market.
Among the housing markets that issued at least 400 single-family housing permits in April 2024:
The 5 markets that saw the most year-over-year permit activity growth were:
- Wilmington, NC: +226%
- Chattanooga, TN-GA: +124%
- Provo, UT: +77%
- Cape Coral, FL: +71%
- Ocala, FL: +67%
The 5 markets that saw the least year-over-year permit activity growth were:
- Myrtle Beach, SC: -24%
- Orlando, FL: -3%
- Nashville, TN: +0%
- Philadelphia, PA: +7%
- Charlotte, NC: +8%
Houston and Dallas issued the most permits to build single-family homes overall, followed by Phoenix, Atlanta, and Charlotte.
Single-family housing permit activity remains the highest in Texas markets despite rising resale inventory and some price corrections.
Even in Austin, where home prices have fallen 18.7% from their 2022 peak according to Zillow, single-family housing permit activity is up 22% year-over-year.
Permits for single-family structures in Florida are also on the rise despite home value depreciation in some markets. North Port, Cape Coral, Port St. Lucie, and Jacksonville all saw mild year-over-year price declines in April but are also among the U.S. housing markets ramping up single-family development.
Big Picture: Despite mortgage rates still sitting around 7%, single-family homebuilding has proved resilient so far. We’ll keep an eye on it.