September Recap: Key Housing Trends Investors Need to Know

Author: Erica Hackmyer

Date Posted: Sep 29, 2025

row of houses

In the last few months, national home price growth has nearly plateaued, transactions have remained moderate, and active inventory levels have continued to increase. But for strategic real estate investors, these same trends are windows of opportunity for great deals—whether in Sun Belt metros where supply has surpassed pre-pandemic 2019 levels, or in the Northeast and Midwest where tighter markets continue to support steady home price appreciation.  

Affordability challenges are front and center in today’s housing market, with elevated mortgage rates and high home prices continuing to weigh on demand, even as rates recently dipped to their lowest level of 2025 in September. However, those same headwinds are producing more motivated sellers and openings for single-family real estate investors.

Every month, investors are hit with a flood of new housing market data points to consider. Each data point helps paint a picture of the current state of the U.S. housing market, but there are a few signals that are essential for savvy real estate investors to pay attention to. 

To cut through the noise and help you stay up to date on what’s happening in today’s housing market, here’s LendingOne’s September 2025 market recap.

Inventory: Buyers Gain Leverage in Select Metros

Active listings have rebounded substantially from pandemic-era lows, though national inventory remains 11% below pre-pandemic 2019 levels. However, the real story lies in regional variation.

Sun Belt boomtowns like Cape Coral and San Antonio have seen inventory bounce above pre-pandemic norms, giving buyers more leverage—especially with builders cutting deals to move unsold spec homes. Among the nation’s 200 largest housing markets, 80 metro areas now have active inventory above 2019 pre-pandemic levels. 

By contrast, supply in the Northeast and Midwest remains tight, keeping sellers in control. In total, 24 major metros are still at least 50% below their 2019 inventory levels.

Among the largest 200 metros, these are the five with the highest inventory levels relative to August 2019:

  1. Killeen-Temple, TX: 93.9%
  2. Punta Gorda, FL: 91.7%
  3. Colorado Springs, CO: 88.0%
  4. Huntsville, AL: 87.1%
  5. Waco, TX: 86.7%

Among the largest 200 metros, these are the five with the lowest inventory levels relative to August 2019:

  1.  Bridgeport-Stamford-Danbury, CT: -75.8%
  2.  Peoria, IL: -74.2%
  3.  Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT: 72.6%
  4.  Norwich-New London-Willimantic, CT: -70.3%
  5.  Champaign-Urbana, IL: -67.5%

Single-Family Home Prices: Broad Softening but Not Uniform

Nationally, single-family home price growth from August 2024 to August 2025 was nearly flat at +0.3%, a sharp deceleration from the +3.1% pace recorded from August 2023 to August 2024. The stall reflects the squeeze of affordability—mortgage rates remain elevated, price levels are still historically high, and more listings are coming online in many metros. 

Sun Belt markets, where supply has grown the most, are adjusting as local incomes struggle to keep pace. By contrast, the Northeast and Midwest remain supply-constrained, helping to stabilize prices and, in some cases, support modest gains.

These are the top five U.S. metros for year-over-year single-family price growth:

  1. Peoria, IL: +8.0%
  2. Rockford, IL: +6.7%
  3. Appleton, WI: +6.5%
  4. Erie, PA: +6.3%
  5. Utica, NY: +6.2%

New Construction: Permits Signal Builder Caution

Unsold completed homes reached their highest level since 2009—the July figure (121,000 unsold completed new homes) is the highest level since July 2009 (126,000).

Because of this buildup, single-family and multifamily permitting slowed in August, reflecting a cautious stance among builders.

Year-over-year (August 2024 to August 2025) change for residential permits:

  • Single-family homes: -11.5%
  • Multifamily (2 to 4 units): -7.0%
  • Multifamily (5 units or more): -9.6% 

Nationally, permit volumes remain above pre-pandemic lows but are well off peak 2021 levels, showing that builders are moderating to prevent a bigger inventory overhang. The pullback is sharpest in Sun Belt metros, where affordability pressures and resale competition have weighed most heavily on demand.

Mortgage-Free Ownership: A Growing Cushion

The 2024 American Community Survey results were released by the U.S. Census Bureau this month, and LendingOne’s analysis revealed a striking demographic shift that continues to reshape the market: a record-high 40.3% of U.S. homeowners are now mortgage-free. 

That’s up from 39.8% in 2023 and 32.8% in 2010.

Demographics are a main driver of the rise. The massive Baby Boomer generation has aged into retirement, and more than half (54%) of mortgage-free homeowners are now over 65 years old. 

This dynamic has created a buffer for equity-rich homeowners, adding a layer of stability to the broader U.S. economy even as affordability remains strained.

Investor Spotlight: Fix-and-Flip Sentiment Holds Steady

Home flipping activity fell sharply after the Pandemic Housing Boom ended in 2022, as higher rates and tighter margins pushed many operators to the sidelines. But Q3 2025 data from the LendingOne–ResiClub Fix and Flip Survey shows the market has stabilized into a new phase: cautious, yet committed.

More than half of flippers (56%) describe their local markets as strong, and 88% still plan at least one project in the next 12 months.

Regional differences are very stark. While current market sentiment is lowest for flippers based in Sunbelt markets, these investors are also optimistic: 41% of flippers in the Southwest and 42% in the Southeast expect their market to strengthen over the next 12 months—the highest among all regions. 

LendingOne analysts believe this suggests that investors see the current softness as temporary, with room for recovery as excess supply clears and demand stabilizes.

Big Picture

The September 2025 housing market has made one thing clear to investors: opportunities are still there, but they’re no longer spread evenly and require sharper targeting.

In the Sun Belt, elevated inventory levels have tipped the balance slightly toward buyers, while falling permit activity shows builders are pulling back to avoid adding more supply into markets already digesting a backlog of homes. 

At the same time, supply in the Northeast and Midwest remains constrained, keeping modest upward pressure on prices—though even there, the pace of growth is beginning to flatten.