After a historic housing whiplash—rates spiking, volumes sliding, confidence wobbling—the past few months have seen the housing market move into a steadier stretch. Mortgage rates dipping into the low 6s have cracked a key psychological ceiling, coaxing some buyers back even as affordability remains tight.
This October, inventory has continued to steadily climb—pressing especially high in Sun Belt metros—causing price growth in many markets to edge down. The month-to-month moves aren’t dramatic, but the direction is clear: affordability remains strained, demand is uneven, and supply is gradually accumulating.
Shifts aren’t uniform: some metros are seeing sharper corrections while others remain resilient. We are now in a market where incremental shifts in inventory and pricing matter more than momentum, and where patience and discipline are key.
For buy-and-hold investors focused on cost control and finding a good deal in their local market, the coming year may offer the best chance in years to buy into a market that’s still settling. Every month, investors are hit with a flood of new housing market data points to consider. Each data point helps paint a picture of the current state of the U.S. housing market, but there are a few signals that are essential for savvy real estate investors to pay attention to.
To cut through the noise and help you stay up to date on what’s happening in today’s housing market, here’s LendingOne’s October 2025 market recap.
Inventory: Active listings continues to build—creating more buying opportunities
Since the homebuying frenzy of the pandemic years, transactions have slowed substantially, resulting in year-over-year increases in active inventory across most U.S. markets.
National active listings in September 2025 were 17% higher than the year before. Still, supply was 10% lower than in pre-pandemic September 2019. The uptick highlights that conditions have eased somewhat over the past year, even as inventory remains historically constrained overall.
12-month change in active housing inventory for sale: Shift between September 2024 and September 2025
Inventory levels continue to rise year-over-year because higher mortgage rates and affordability challenges have cooled buyer demand, leaving homes on the market longer. In many Sun Belt metros, where new construction has surged in recent years, fresh supply is also adding to active inventory levels.
Among the largest 200 metros, these are the five with the highest year-over-year inventory gains relative to September 2024:
- Asheville, NC: +71.7%
- Durham–Chapel Hill, NC: +49.9%
- Washington–Arlington–Alexandria, DC–VA–MD–WV: +48.7%
- Fayetteville–Springdale–Rogers, AR: +48.6%
- Olympia–Lacey–Tumwater, WA: +47.9%
Single-Family Home Prices: Softening continues amidst affordability squeeze
Nationally, single-family home prices were nearly flat from September 2024 to September 2025, up just 0.3% compared to a 2.8% gain a year earlier. The softening reflects the affordability squeeze: mortgage rates remain elevated, price levels are still historically high, and more supply is coming online.
One-year change in single-family home prices by metro
Sun Belt markets, where supply has grown the most, are adjusting as local incomes struggle to keep pace. By contrast, the Northeast and Midwest remain supply-constrained, helping to stabilize prices and, in some cases, support modest gains—though softening persists in these markets as well.
These are the top 10 U.S. metros for year-over-year single-family price growth:
- Peoria, IL: +9.0%
- Erie, PA: +7.0%
- Rockford, IL: +6.8%
- Utica, NY: +6.6%
- Appleton, WI: +6.6%
- Canton, OH: +6.3%
- Youngstown, OH: +5.5%
- York, PA: +5.3%
- Scranton, PA: +5.3%
- Syracuse, NY: +5.1%
Rent Growth: Softened but stable—especially for single-family rentals
While home price growth continues to weaken, rent growth is a bit more resilient—especially among single-family rentals.
In September 2025, overall rents were up 2.4% year-over-year, with multifamily units rising 1.7% and single-family rentals leading at 3.2%.
Cooling growth reflects the comedown from pandemic-era peaks, but steady tenant demand and solid occupancy suggest stability ahead—particularly in metros with strong job markets and limited overbuilding. Strained home affordability may also be pushing more households into the rental market.
Year-over-year shifts in U.S. rent growth
”Rental demand has remained resilient—rising household formations and affordability constraints continue to funnel renters toward single-family homes,” LendingOne CEO Matthew Neisser said in the Q3 market report. “For investors focused on buy-and-hold strategies, the fundamentals still look supportive.”
Single-family builder sentiment ticks up, despite market headwinds
This month’s government shutdown delayed the release of September permit data, leaving a gap in one of the market’s usual supply signals. Still, other indicators suggest cautious optimism from builders.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is a monthly survey that asks builders to rate current sales of new single-family homes, sales expectations for the next six months, and the traffic of prospective buyers. Readings above 50 indicate that more builders view conditions as “good” than “poor.”
The HMI reading rose to 37 in October, up five points from September and the highest reading since April. Confidence in current sales conditions climbed to 38, sales expectations for the next six months surged to 54, and prospective buyer traffic edged higher to 25.
U.S. homebuilder sentiment ticks up to a 6-month high
That optimism, however, comes with a caveat: price cuts remain widespread. Nearly four in ten (38%) builders reported cutting prices in October and the average price reduction rose to 6%. The last time builders reduced prices by 6% was in October 2024.
Incentives are also pervasive, with 65% of builders deploying them. The result is a market where confidence is inching up, but competition for buyers is forcing concessions.
Buyer Leverage: Listings across the South and Mountain West are lingering
Perhaps the clearest sign of a slowed housing market is how long homes are taking to sell.
Nationally, the typical days on market climbed from 41 in September 2021 to 62 in September 2025. The slowdown is even more pronounced in markets across the South and Mountain West, where typical listings in September 2025 sat for more than 100 days—compared with fewer than 30 days during the pandemic frenzy.
In several Northeast and Midwest metros, homes are still moving relatively quickly, with typical days on market holding near pre-pandemic norms.
Typical days on market in September 2025
For buyers, longer timelines mean more leverage: the ability to negotiate price reductions, request concessions, or wait out sellers under pressure. For investors, it signals that deal opportunities remain in once-overheated markets.
Big Picture
October’s housing data reinforces a theme of divergence. Nationally, inventory is climbing and price growth has slowed to nearly flat, but smaller, affordable metros in the Midwest and Northeast continue to see meaningful appreciation.
Rental demand remains a bright spot, especially for single-family units, offering investors stability even as home sales cool. Builder sentiment is recovering slightly, though discounting underscores the ongoing affordability crunch. And with listings lingering in the South and Mountain West, buyers are gaining negotiating power not seen since before the pandemic.
For investors, the message is clear: this is a market that demands local focus, disciplined underwriting, and a sharp eye for regional differences.
